News
Recent news
PBLA honors Jānis Kukainis with its top award
ALA announces Nov. 18 gifts to Latvia
Latvia applauds work of 380 diaspora organizations
LTV to broadcast Nov. 18 events over Internet
Latvia ranks 10th in world for closing gender gap
Analysts, rating services sour on Latvia’s credit
Government takes over No. 2 Parex Banka
Zatlers congratulates Obama on U.S. election victory
Irish police ask help to find missing Latvian man
Eurostat: Latvia’s population to sink by 2060
August 29, 2008
On the bright side, think of the elbow room: By 2060, if one or more demographic trends are not reversed, the population of Latvia will have plummeted to less than 1.7 million, according to a new European Union forecast.
The forecast, released Aug. 26 by the EU’s Luxembourg-based Eurostat service, puts Latvia second only to Bulgaria for the greatest percent loss in population over the next five decades. By 2060, Latvia could see almost a 26 percent decline to 1.682 million inhabitants, compared to Bulgaria, which stands to lose about 28 percent of its population.
If the prediction holds true, Latvia would become the fifth smallest country in the EU. It currently is the sixth smallest, based on a population of about 2.27 million at the start of this year.
The Eurostat forecast blames Latvia’s predicament on a combination of a low birth rate, a death rate that will continue to outpace births, and continued emigration. The last time Latvia’s population fell so low was in the wake of World War I. Almost 1.6 million inhabitants were counted in Latvia in the 1920 census.
The 1989 census recorded more than 2.66 million inhabitants in Latvia—the highest number ever.
In all, Latvia and 13 other EU member states are expected to lose population over the next five decades. Thirteen other countries, as well as non-EU members Norway and Switzerland, will see gains. Germany, with 82 million inhabitants, is the most populous EU member now, but by 2060 it is expected to lose more than 11 million persons. The United Kingdom, meanwhile, will grow from 61 million to become the largest nation with more than 76 million inhabitants in 2060, the Eurostat survey predicts.
Besides the overall numbers, another concern for Latvia’s policymakers could well be the aging population. Persons age 65 and older now make up just more than 17 percent of the population, but by 2060 that is expected to double to about 34 percent, the study reported. However, this will not be a uniquely Latvian issue as similar trends are expected across the EU.
The other Baltic countries are expected to see population declines as well. Estonia will slide from about 1.34 million at the beginning of this year to 1.13 million by 2060, according to Eurostat. Lithuania will drop from 3.36 million to about 2.55 million.
Andris Straumanis is editor of Latvians Online.
What's new
Reviews
20 Nov 2008
Čikāgas piecīši returns to Rīga for a concert from the heart
A great Latvian word is the adjective sirsnīgs. Roughly translated, it means “from the heart” or “warm hearted”…
Opinions
20 Nov 2008
Visilgākā, viskošākā, visintensīvākā un visemocionālākā jubileja
Latvijas lielās un apaļās jubilejas sauklis bija “Iededzies par Latviju!”. Teikšu atklāti, bija grūti neiedegties, jo tajās četrās…
News
19 Nov 2008
PBLA honors Jānis Kukainis with its top award
Jānis Kukainis, a longtime Latvian-American community activist, has been honored with its top award by the World Federation…
In the forums
Daudz laimes dzimsanas diena, Latvija! - "Mūsu ir tikai nepilns pusotrs miljons, un mums IR sava valsts." posted by ambersun on 18 Nov 2008
Apsveic Latviju ar 90 gadu jubileju posted by katjai on 18 Nov 2008
Kas Jauns Latvijā 11/2008 posted by Roberts on 17 Nov 2008
Latvian Soldiers of the Strange War. Requiem. posted by AugustaDels on 17 Nov 2008
Valsts valodu apdraud krievu valodas pašpietiekamība posted by Peteris Cedrins on 17 Nov 2008
Advertise with Latvians Online! Click here
Comments about this article
vic
Another issue linked to this is that, as in the rest of Europe, Latvia needs workers to support financially its goverment that gives social assistant to the increasing old citizens or attends childhood (the extremes of the population pyramid). If latvians can't increase births or stop immigration to other countries the only solution to have a solid taxing base is to allow immigration, this, in the end, shall change the etnographic characteristics not only of Latvia but of Europe in the future decades.
15 Sep 2008 (Latvia)
Erik
Come on Vic, the "only solution"? With a per capita GDP still amongst the lowest in the EU and an estimated 40+% of the economy still in the gray market, both improving tax collection and increasing efficiency would bring faster and more sustainable benefits. There has been pressure over the past few years, and some accomodation by the government, for employers in some segments of the economy. The main impetus for this has not been to ensure increased production or eficiency, but to keep wages low. This benefits only the owners of said companies and does nothing to improve competitivness, increase average family incomes and/or to see a more equal distribution of wealth.
17 Sep 2008 (Latvia)