Terror may be in store for Latvia, threatens Saskaņas Centrs “lielā Šiška” Jānis Urbānovičs.  In an interview published in „Телеграф” , he blatantly suggested that Rīga will become an inferno of ethnic violence on the scale with Bishkek—referring to the Kyrgyz clashes this past spring where hundreds of people were killed and thousands were wounded.  ”Но ведь и ситуации никогда не было такой, как сейчас. Если этого не сделать, будет Бишкек.” Apparently, “Vienotība” is forcing SC into the arms of AŠ2, and if the KKK and Kolaboranti do not get their dirty fingers into the pie, the streets will run red with blood.  Autumn, it appears, will bring a need for Doctors, such as Valdis Zatlers and Hosams Abu Meri.

/V a.k.a. Der Übersturmführer von согласия

It’s taken you a while, Roberts. The interview was published two weeks ago… And the question I have had since then is what does he mean by “если этого не сделать” in this context. If you don’t do what, there will be Bishkek?

PS And he now says he was misunderstood while using the same quote.

Aleksejs - 28 July 2010 01:05 PM

It’s taken you a while, Roberts. The interview was published two weeks ago… And the question I have had since then is what does he mean by “если этого не сделать” in this context. If you don’t do what, there will be Bishkek?

It’s not like you had ever brought it up on the forum, Alyosha.  It doesn’t fit the KKKs narrative.

I am not the SC supporter. Never was. Never voted for them. But I do think the quote was taken out of context… this is why I asked the question that I did. So, back to the question: if they don’t do what, there will be another Bishkek, according to Urbanovic?

Do you really need help comprehending Russian?  In the preceding paragraphs ahead of the quote in the „Телеграф” article, Urbanovičs expresses his (and presumably SC’s) ambitions to have the power to select ministers, including the prime minister.  Absent that, “there will be Bishkek.”  Like Rīga, Bishkek was heavily Russified before independence.  Two decades later, Russians now make up only about 20% of the city’s population.  Either Urbanovičs is threatening to ramp up ethnic strife, or he is promising that a big chunk of Rīga’s Russians will return home to Родина.

Either way, things may be looking up!

See, the way I look at the context, he was asked not what he’d do if he doesn’t get in the government. In fact, the question of him not getting into the government never arises. He was asked with which parties and political blocs he’d be willing to work. This is when Comrade Urbanovics revealed he’d want to create what he called the Third Republic. Speaking about cooperation with other parties, he says:

Мы можем работать буквально со всеми. Однако перво-наперво я бы предложил договориться о той республике, которую мы будем создавать — о той формуле, по которой будет работать новое правительство.  Мы предлагаем своим партнерам, с которыми мы говорим уже сейчас: пусть те, кого избрали в Сейм, там и сидят. Премьера выбираем под программу, которую согласовываем. А исполнителей — министров — нанимаем самых лучших профессионалов из всех отраслей.

Translation: We can work literally with everyone. However, first of all, I would propose to agree what kind of republic are we going to create, to agree about what formula which will use the new government. We offer our partners with whom we are talking right now: let those who would be elected into the next Saeima sit there. The PM we’d elect according to th program we agree on. And the executives, or ministers, we’ll hire the best professionals from different nozares

Then, Urbanovics is asked about a reaction on his proposal from Ainars, Andris and Aivars. He says, Никто не говорит «нет». Они говорят «такого никогда не было». Но ведь и ситуации никогда не было такой, как сейчас. Если этого не сделать, будет Бишкек.

“No one says ‘no’ [to his proposal]. They say, ‘It has never been like this’. However, there has never been a situation as it is now. And if we don’t do this, there will be Bishkek.”

I don’t see it as a veiled threat with violence. I don’t agree with him, but it appears to me he is saying that the ethnic divisions cannot remain in this country. One needs a concept for a new Republic which would include everyone who lives here. Otherwise, it could get ugly.

Urbanovics’ Third Republic comment was the subject of Raudseps’ column last week. (Registration may be required) And Raudseps agrees with me:

Viņa [Urbanovča] pamatprasība, pēc vēlēšanām veidojot jauno Ministru kabinetu, - lai tur nebūtu neviena, kas ievēlēts Saeimā. Ir jābūt «sienai» starp parlamentu un valdību, lai ministri varētu pildīt kopējo programmu «par republiku, kuru mēs radīsim». Šī prasība Urbanovičam ir tik svarīga, ka viņš pat draud ar Krievijas inspirētu etnisko vardarbību, ja tā netiktu pildīta. «Ja to nedarīs, būs Biškeka,» viņš saka, atsaucoties uz nesenajiem grautiņiem, kuru laikā tika gāzts Kremļa nežēlastībā nonākušais Kirgiz stānas valdnieks.

This goes deeper than merely not getting into the government. He says the situation in the country is critical, and if you don’t do sweeping changes, it is bound to turn into an ethnic violence.

I wish you well in your endeavours to try and learn the language of Pushkin, Lermontov and Tolstoy.  So few of your people in the Diaspora do.  If you have any more difficulty understanding the native language of my ancestors, please don’t be embarrassed to seek additional help.

“Es piedāvāju baidīties no tautas.”
—Jānis Urbanovičs

Aleksejs - 28 July 2010 07:55 PM

This goes deeper than merely not getting into the government. He says the situation in the country is critical, and if you don’t do sweeping changes, it is bound to turn into an ethnic violence.

Is this why he is commissioning polls that ask such questions as:

Aptaujas organizatori grib noskaidrot, kādu kādu himnu respondents uzskata par nacionālo un piedāvā šādus atbilžu variantus: ““Dievs, svētī Latviju!”, “Dievs, saglabāt cara..”, PSRS himna, Krievijas himna.” Aptaujas pasūtītāji vēlas noskaidrot arī sabiedrības nacionālos varoņus, piedāvājot šādus atbilžu variantus: Lāčplēsis, Kārlis Ulmanis, Ļeņins, Staļins, Putins, Medvedevs.

And those were just some of the tamer ones. 

Among the more inflammatory: “What is your position on the possible ethnic confrontations?  If such confrontations are likely, how would they manifest?  The last part of the survey sends a very ominous message that asks what should be done if ethnic strife is inevitable: “Open, violent mass confrontations; or somewhat violent, but mostly rhetoric-based confrontation.”

As my Russian language skills are lacking, perhaps you could translate the survey in its entirety, just to be sure that Saskaņas Centrs’ message isn’t being misunderstood here.

/V a.k.a. Der Übersturmführer von Raudseps agrees with me

Roberts, I don’t intend to defend Urbanovics as a politician. I’m not a SC PR consultant. My comments were addressing a specific case of a specific quote. Glad to see you implied that he was misquoted.

Having said that, Urbanovics today has changed his mind several times on many different issues.

PS The survey you mentioned was distributed in Latvian (.doc file). But watch out, it’s the Sorositas site, you might get some kind of virus from the truth.

PPS. Here is an example:

Ir.lv ceturtdien divas reizes sazinājās ar Saeimas SC frakcijas vadītāju Jāni Urbanoviču. Pirmajā reizē viņš uzsvēra, ka sarunā pirms iepriekšējās publikācijas esot pārprasts, vai arī Ir.lv paši sagatavojuši tādu aptauju un kopā ar “Visu Latvijai” apzināti izplatot nepatiesu informāciju. Pēc tam viņš asi pārtrauca sarunu. Otro reizi sazvanīts, Urbanovičs uz jautājumu par EPI atbildēja, ka šādu institūtu nezina. Viņš apstiprināja, ka pazīst Gapoņenko, taču SC konsultējot “ļoti daudzi dažādi eksperti”, Gapoņenko esot tikai viens no tiem. ”Nu, nav man nekāda sakara ar šo institūtu, ar šo pētījumu. Man vienalga, kas viņi ir,” sacīja Urbanovičs.

Gaponenko turned out to be the SC shadow economy minister candidate no. 2. Go figure.

J.Urbanoviča paziņojums

Sveiki!

Muižnieks’ take about the dynamics of this thread’s political theater topic seems spot on to me:

http://www.diena.lv/lat/politics/viedokli/muiznieks-visu-latvijia-un-sc-censas-profileties-viena-uz-otras-fona

E.

Sveika!

What’s most interesting in this political theater is why Visu Latvijai! un SC cenšas profilēties viena uz otras fona, and Muižnieks doesn’t answer that—neither party is likely to get many voters from the other or sway too many in the middle (the middle being where, considering that PCTVL is still viable for some reason, according to the polls). For VL, it can make sense to draw votes away from Vienotība—i.e., it takes a more “nationalistic stance.”

For SC? Coming out with astounding crap like this, with regularity, simply shows that SC is “just another Russian party,” as many have suggested in the past—Urbanovičs’s comment echoes Zhdanok’s by now ancient invocation of the Macedonian civil war. Muižnieks calls the interview with Urbanovičs dīvaina—but what I find even dīvaināk is that SC has done little or nothing to gain ethnic Latvian votes and much to alienate them. The only explanation I have is that they’re just plain stupid, politically. 

Vysu lobu,
/P

Sveiks, Pēteri!

Perhaps both parties are so used to these tactics that they wouldn’t know what else to do?  I assume it must play well to some portion of their respective constituencies, otherwise surely they wouldn’t continue the ethnic-baiting game.  But do you really think SC wants to court ethnic Latvian voters?  They already have both ethnic Latvian candidates as well as some ethnic Latvian voters who’ve bought into SC’s goals (nulles variants, promotion of Russian language use, etc) and who don’t seem to have a problem with the political theater.  I’m just guessing that those are the only type of voters SC would want.  One could, btw, ask the question on the flip side:  except for Šlesers, why has none of the ethnic Latvian parties ever courted Russophones? 

Actually, Ozoliņš’s recent comment (to his latest article about the egregious quality of the parties’ programs) may hold the answer:

“Jāsecina, ka partijas nelabprāt paplašina priekšvēlēšanu diskusiju iespējas un labāk turas, drošs paliek drošs, saukļu aplociņā.”

Political theater is easy for these pols and provides a marvelous smoke screen, since neither programs need to be developed nor need issues be discussed.

Visu labu,

E.

I think the SC are trying to win over Latvians.

Par Labu Latviju is trying to win over russophones. The Vienotiba makes some feeble attempts at reaching out the non-Latvians.

Labrīt!

But do you really think SC wants to court ethnic Latvian voters?

Ay, there’s the rub. I think the real answer is no. Some of those in it had (have?) this vision of a landslide victory, misreading the Riga results and mistakenly applying the misread results to all of Latvia. Then there’s pretending to be a social democratic party and even a mass movement. Courting Latvian voters, however, would require acquiring some courtship skills, and in that they are completely clueless. Thank the gods. 

Vysu lobu,
/P

Sveiki!

Aleks, „I think the SC are trying to win over Latvians.”

If you have an opportunity to either send links to videos of SC’s attempts via TV/radio ads, or summarize your impressions, that would be great.  It’s a *huge* disadvantage not being in LV during the pre-election frenzy.  Ads seem to have an enormous influence on election outcomes.

„Par Labu Latviju is trying to win over russophones.”

Well, LPP/LC (despite their poor overall showing) were quite effective with the ethnic vote 4 years ago.  I wouldn’t expect less now.

„The Vienotiba makes some feeble attempts at reaching out the non-Latvians.”

Is this via ads, or…..?

Pēteris,  „Courting Latvian voters, however, would require acquiring some courtship skills, and in that they are completely clueless.”

To be honest, other than Stendzenieks’ impressive marketing ability in his 2006 ads, which only focused on winning votes, but had nothing to do with building a voter base ( – not that that’s actually a goal of any of the current political groupings running for office – ), I think all of the electoral coalitions are clueless about how to court voters.  They’d actually have to find out which issues concern voters, then address them, and begin to establish a relationship with the more active voters.  But that’s an awful lot of unnecessary trouble, ne tā? 

As for this season’s electoral courting techniques,  I was quite turned off by the news that Vienotība was giving away for free *green* cotton candy in its pre-election ploys.  I’m sure it’s just a matter of personal preference, but though I loved pink cotton candy when I was a kid & the circus came to town, green doesn’t sound so appealing.  :-| Maybe it’s a cultural thing connected to childhood memories or some such.

Visu labu,

E.